Last week, I took two trades with the same strategy as that used before COVID. The ZAR trade was absolutely in the wrong the direction and was stopped out. that was fine, and the loss for smaller because I went back to 2% trades instead of 4%, feeling very conservative after this run of negative trades. The next GBP was done with 4%, and no other adjustment to strategy.
This week's trades were much more thought out. I honestly was 100% confident in my trades. I hedged my bets (4%, 2:1) because the EUR and GBP basically mirror each other. I entered around 2230 PST, which is a little before market opening in the UK, ready for the morning jump. I had to increase the range of the trade, which translates to less profit. Rather than 3:1, I had to do 2:1. Once I lost the GBP, I just waited it out. Again, because of the negative streak, I didn't require the trade to hit my Take Profit. So this week, I made about 3%, slowly getting back into things.
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At this point, I have less than 2 weeks before I start consistent active trading. Therefore, I will spend time with a little extra analysis this post to explain what's going to happen. As usual, I'm putting almost everything on the table. The 1st thing I will do is see what effect fundamental announcements have had lately. I'll take JPY, GBP/EUR, and ZAR in that order.
JPY
6April - Monthly and Yearly Household Spending released around market opening. The chart shows a usual jump but a little before the announcement.
08Apr - BoJ speech says bank will help Japan with easing policy. Yen drops a little bit in 3 hours around market opening.
10Apr - Consumer Index monthly/yearly released. Big drop for 3 hours around market opening
GBP/EUR
01Apr - House Price Index released, HUGE drop for 4 hours at market opening. Euro generally has cleaner jumps with less noise than GBP.
02Apr - EUR retail sales at 0200. A moderate sell off follows a few hours after release
06Apr - GBP Construction Purchasing Managers Index released at 0130. Notable rise at market open for 2 hours. Here's an example of the charts I'm reading in relation to the Fundamental Announcements.
ZAR
14APR - 0230 South African Reserve Bank Interest Rate Decision released. A delayed response at market open but a rise no less (interest rate drops, more supply, value drops, USDZAR goes up... making a little sense). Come to think of it, I don't have a balance large enough in Oanda (or IG) to trade ZAR just yet.
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That was a good exercise. I realized my MT5 app is set to GMT, while my online economic calendar (on my homepage) is set to my local time. Forex teaches you to convert times in your head. Speaking of which, the Oanda App is useful in that way because it tells you market opening and closing times of each currency market when you go to trade them. Following is a list of upcoming fundamental announcements on the same currencies. I'm putting them into my phone to guide some, if not all my trades next month.
JPY
04Jun - 1630 Household Spending, Market Services/Composite
23Jun - 1630 BoJ Summary of Opinions
07Jun - 1650 GDP
Apparently, the economic calendar only provides future dates after the day has passed for the current announcement, so I'll continue this list next week with JPY as well as GBP and EUR. That would take care of the hard work for next month!
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Finally, I have finished the Corporate Finance book, written for a grad level course at Brown University. It was a whirl wind of new terminology and formulaic applications. I recognized about 50% of the material. The book speaks to future corporate managers, CFOs, and students. I enjoyed many parts of it though. Above all else, I have begun developing a mental image of the person I would like to partner with who specializes in finance management.
Capital Asset Pricing Models (CAPM) and Present Value are running themes throughout, and I enjoyed that part. This book is 14 years old, and it's clear that little has changed in the fundamental concepts of corporate management. There was little for me to apply directly to my current situation, but I'm grateful for the humbling experience of pushing through the text. With that being done, I'll rewrite below for the last time, the 44 books on trade I've read since October 2018. Finally, I feel free to revisit some of my favorites from the list:
- Energy Trade and Risk Management // Iris Mack
- *Think and Grow Rich
- Unshakeable // Tony Robbins
- The Intelligent Investor //Benjamin Grah
- How to Day Trade for a Living // Andrew Aziz
- *Power System Economics 2nd Edition // Daniel Kirshen
- *Day Trading University // Ken Calhoun (2000)
- The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing // Jason Kelly (2010)
- Profitable Day and Swing Trading // Harry Boxer (2014)
- *Keene on the Market // Andrew Keene (2013)
- Money: Master the Game // Tony Robbins (2014)
- *Think and Grow Rich: A Black Choice // Dennis Kimbro
- The Playbook: Inside Look... Think Like Pro Trader // Mike Bellafiore (2013)
- Digital Decarbonization // Council of Foreign Relations (2018)
- Secrets of Antigravitic Propulsion // LaViolete Ph.D (2010)
- Automated Options Trading // Izraayiezich (2012)
- Using the Financial Pages // Romesh Vaitlingham (2006)
- Essentials of Forex Trading // James Chen (2009)
- *How to Retire Early // Robin Charlton (2013)
- Naked Forex // Dr. Walter Peters (2012)
- *Insider Buy - Superstocks // Jesse Stine
- Commodities for Dummies // Amine Bouchentour (2011)
- *Seasonality in the Stock Market // Jay Kaeppel (2009)
- What Works on Walstreet // O'honnessey (2011)
- The Investopedia Guide to Wall Street (2009)
- The Innovator's Dilemma (2003)
- 17 Currency Trading Strategies (2013)
- MetaTrader 4 User Manual
- Unlimited Memory // Grandmaster Kevin Horsley
- Visual Guide to Option Trading (2014)
- The Complete Guide to Option Spreads and Combinations (2014)
- Getting Started in Currency Trading (2008)
- Amazing Forex System (2004)
- Visual Guide to Candlestick Charting (2012)
- Forex Trading Techniques (2003)
- Getting Started in Futures (2005)
- Project Management Book of Knowledge 5th Edition (2015)
- Corporate Finance (2014)
- *Real Leadership // Dean Williams (2010)
- *Accounts Demystified (2008)
- Traders: Risks, Decisions... // Willman (2005)
- Mastering Market Timing // Dickson (2012)
- Trading Systems and Methods // Kaufman (2013)
- A 1st Course in Corporate Finance // Welch (2006)
*my favorites
Well, come to find out, I miscounted my written list of trade books, so I had to sprinkle the list with other books I've read in the same time frame that were indirectly relevant to my business endeavors; the motivating books that continue to feed my mind. That's enough for today. Later.
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