In summary, out of 20 trades, 10 ended in profits. The account balance is at $3064. There was a net profit for the week until trades were entered last night, and 2 out of 3 were stopped out! Confidence from this week's success clouded my vision and arrogance stepped in. From +$1 to -$83 or something. A few lessons this week...
It seems like when in a bullish or bearish trend at night, it only continues throughout the night, so trades should be entered early to expect rallies at the beginning of the day.
Nearly all the trades that were losses occurred when not actively engaged in the market, i.e. setting trades and heading into work. Only twice was the TP met. Instead of waiting for the TP, trades were closed when positive and a reversion was noted.
************************************************************
This week, a chart was developed listing the range of price movements within the currency pairs for different timeframes. These numbers were eyeballed, rough estimates for my own use. USDJPY was the least volatile of the bunch, and GBDUSD was the most active. No preference as of yet, because both extremes can be useful. This is shown below. It's been utilized when setting positions.
Examining the live feeds, the ranges help with establishing position sizes. 2% is still the norm for now. At 60% success rate, the risk will be raised. Another adjustment has been to decrease the pip spread and slide it in the direction expected. For instance, if EURUSD is averaging 30 pips volatility in an 8 hour time frame, and a 60 pip drop is expected, the 30 pip risk may be decreased to 20 depending on confidence level. Also, the pip spread is decreased just to decrease the risk:reward to more favorable numbers. 1:1.5 to 1:3 was used throughout the week, but the TP was rarely reached.
Along with the volatility for position sizing, and multiple time frames, confirmation was looked for utilizing Bollinger Bands mostly. More attention will be given next week to other strategies.
One note from Getting Started in Currency Trading is "When the entire market expects a move, the reverse must happen." It sounds good, but has yet to be proven through personal experience. More reading to come before next week, and more of the same purposeful trading. There must be more research into the different currencies as well.