-3 trades, down to 26% overall

3 trades this week in the negative as seen below.  This was a different week as I was on the East Coast, but I think the timing was coordinated accurately to enter at the market openings.  The first one, USDJPY was entered around 1530, so it lasted 3.5 hrs. EURUSD lasted from 0900-1315, so 4.25 hrs, and the last USDJPY lasted 10hrs.  

Checking the fundamental announcements JPY, USD, and EUR for this past week, nothing jumps out.  What’s interesting the is the USDJPY jump that I noticed. A quick look into some forex news and it some analysts attribute the rally to the political scene in America. 

Beyond that, I’ve been looking into Oanda, IG, and other forex brokers this week.  A good review of their legal disclosures has been very helpful in understanding who to go with in the near future.   That's my assignment next week along with continuing in the same procedure.  The balance is $125,671, which is a 26% overall gain so far.  

I finished book #42(?) this week, Mastering Market Timing (2012).  It was all about technical analysis. One interesting take-a-way involved using the same indicators on large and small time frames.  Also, I enjoyed the discussion on previous bottoms and tops throughout the years; bear from '80-'82 sticks out, and of course the crash of 2008/. It's interesting to explore the different analyzes given toward the same event from multiple perspectives. Overall, everything's clear in retrospect, all taken with a grain of salt.

5 trades - 23.9% gain

Interesting last two weeks.  Here's the snapshot below with a few tidbits to mention. So, I traded JPY, EUR, and ZAR.  A mistake became very favorable for me.  The lot size divided by the pips was a little off.  Instead of a 22 pip move, it was 220 pips; an extremely volatile pair.  Looking at the fundamental indicators, there was ZAR news that showed Mining production numbers (y/y and m/m) in the red and Gold Production numbers in the green.   EUR indicators were few, but many USD indicators were positive.

Balance is $132,000, so it's been a fortuitous February.  Until next week.

-1.2%

Alright, here we go! If you're new to my blog, I suggest starting at the beginning, L'esprit Superior.  A lot has happened and will continue to happen. It's been a few months, but there's lot to learn and understand as we continue to go forward.

As seen above, I did 4 trades instead of 3 this past week. I got excited.  I missed the market opening on the USDJPY trade. Otherwise, it can be seen that although I made the other trades at the right time (before market open), they didn't close in the same 1 to 4 hour window I expected. That's ok though, I'm going to do the same next week.

To address the previous strategies I was using, Trend Bouncer and Trend Rider, I have to address technical analysis. There's more interest right now in market fundamentals, as discussed in my goals for the year.  So yes, I'm quite aware that I switched focus, and this was due to my research and study.

To conclude, my running percentage now is (1.0397)(.988) = 2.7%.

********************************************************

I finished Traders: Risks, Decisions, and Management in Financial Markets (2005), and here are my take-a-ways. As a letter grade, it gets a C+.  Full of anecdotes, much talk on the psychology of traders and managers. It provided great visualizations of proprietary firms, the working environment, employee/management concerns, and career progression.  

A forex trade has a natural 50/50 probability (1/2).  That's terrible risk.  Managing risk should mean I get the probably up around 95-98%.  If I do 8 trades with a 95% probably of getting it right, that's (.95)^8 = 66%.  If I get it up to 99% accuracy, that's (.99)^8= 92%!  So, even being really confident and accurate, it's difficult to get the numbers in your favor.  I'm mindful of this going forward.  Looking at and understanding market fundamentals I feel can be a game changer.  The technical analysis camp is strong, however, and I'm well aware of how the idea is sold. I have seen less on fundamentals, and I wonder why people are afraid to gain that perspective. For me, it's quite exciting!

My trading skills will provide me an opportunity to partner with prop firms. I'm going to start a perfect relationship (balanced, light-hearted, disciplined, passionate, and humanist) with the perfect mentor some time this month.  Also, I'm gaining inside information from within the trader community.

The next text, #42, is Mastering Market Timing (2012), which it seems may be emphasizing technical analysis. We'll see.

*******************************************************

Finally, here's the forex info I've looked into this weekend.  Some info I've listed in previous posts, but now the info is going deeper into my consciousness.  The top 8 currencies follow. In MT5, I've set up currency pairs with USD for all of them.  The goal going forward is to watch them all.  I may make more than 2 this week, just to see experiment with the others and see the spreads.  Speaking of spreads, I placed a trade during a rally last week, and immediately I saw my profit in the negative. The point? It's best to place trades before a big move because it's cheaper. The bid/ask prices "spread" when that currency pair gets moving.

The time is when the market opens (PST) and the deadline for me to enter trades

1. USD - US dollar (US, Singapore, China..) - 0630
2. EUR - Euro (24 European countries) - 23/2400
3. JPY - Japanese Yin - 1600
4. GBP - British Pound (UK) - 2400
5. CHF - Swiss franc (Switzerland) - 0630
6. CAD - Canadian Dollar - 0630
7. AUD - Australian Dollar - 1500
8. ZAR - South African Rand - 2300

The breakdown of my 24-hr clock:

• LSE - London (GBP)
• SIX - Zurich, Switzerland (CHF)
• FWB - Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Germany (EUR)
• MOEX - Moscow, Russia (RUB)
• JSE - Johannesburg, South Africa (ZAR)
• TADAWUL - Saudi Arabia (SAR) 
• DFM - Dubai (QR)
• JPX - Japan Exchange Group (JPY)
• SSE - Shangai Stock Exchange (CNY)
• HKEX - Hong Kong (HKD, CNY, USD)
• SGX - Singapore (SGD, USD)
• NSE - Mumbai - Nation's Stock Exchange of India (INR)
• ASX - Sydney, Australia (AUD)
• NZX - Wellington, New Zealand (NZD) "kiwi" dollar
• BMBF - Sao Paulo - B3 Brazil Real (BRL)

It's interesting to see which currencies are being traded on MT5. I will soon understand what relationships exist beyond the platform, and which countries simply do not trade with one another.