I've officially lost over 50% of my investment to date. At this point, I'm at a loss, pun intended I suppose. Now, I'm at the point where every loss carries a sting. I'm not waiting for an average of wins. I am now limiting my positions. My SL is only a few pips away from entry. I'm taking something or losing little to nothing. I'll say more next time if it works. I mean, who wants to listen to someone losing? Not me.
670
That’s 4.6% gains, which is like saying I was slightly better than 1:1. What made the difference this week? More discipline is all. Setting my support and resistance bands continuously throughout the day. What I learned:
Consolidation occurs routinely. Ride out these moments. Be patient with your lines of support. Set it and forget it. Don’t second guess. Go through with it. When I’m doing it right, there’s no stress. I’m learning throughout the trade when my mind is clear.
Set the SL and TP based on the lines of support and resistance. If you’re iffy about the trade, wait for the one with stronger signs. Study more about the markets if you’re wondering about your trade. Take in information rather than worry. Looking back at 1H, 4H, 8H, and 1D helps to get perspective, although it still comes down to what’s happening in the moment.
Only use the trailing stop after being in the trade for an hour or so, and only to secure profit (in the green). If it’s a heartbeat (chart looks periodic), don’t worry about the trailing stop. You should trail a rally up or down.
If you start off strong in the day and get 4% or more, step out for the rest of the day. All that said, I’ll do a little studying this weekend, and practice these things again next week. Sunday is my 1st marathon.
641
Battered, but not beaten, not destroyed. It was actually a good week of trades, as far as execution. 3 out of 4 trades were executed correctly. The other trade I went "with my gut," and I watched as it betrayed me. I have been setting up price signals, and that's been very helpful, because I can just put my phone away. This was the first time I received an alert about my data usage, and it took me an hour to realize it was because I'd been watching the market throughout the day.
I also spent some time studying the Yen this past week. I learned the US exports ($121 billion) mineral fuels, aircraft, optical and medical instruments, and machinery (including electrical) to Japan. We import ($180 billion) vehicles, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and medical instruments. We export 10% of the natural gas imported into Japan. China is a bigger trade partner with Japan.
So despite the losses this week, I am encouraged, and I refuse to give up. It's the application that I have to get together. Another positive in this past week; I resisted the desire to simply enter a trade, and I waited for entries. No entry, no trade. Alright, off to the races. Until next time.
680
How did I get here? No strategy. I lay myself before the court and plead guilty as charged. Despite all my study, I stepped on the court and played against my opponent, trying out moves on the fly. My defense was terrible, my offense was even worse. But I had a lot of energy! Looking back at my performance over all on June and July, there are some good takeaways.
I was patient with myself. Even when I fell, I got right back up. Switching from court trial, to basketball, to chess metaphor, I tried different openings, some offensive, some defensive, to try and gauge my opponent. And just like in chess, I got beat over and over again. I have a lot of faith in abilities. I am confident that I can and will win this game. Now, all the mistakes…
I set out to reinvent the wheel. I wanted to “discover” forex anew, as if nothing I read mattered. I threw technical analysis out the window, got rid of my Bollinger Bands, RSI, and volume indicators. I just looked at candlesticks, changing the time frames repeatedly, and making a decision based on where I thought it was going. Fundamentals? Nope.
I took small profits when I was worried about reversals, and I stuck around when in the negative, hoping for reversals! Yes, I cut profits early, and left positions open to reach the stop losses; backward AF. I promise it felt so right though.
Instead of only 2 trades a week, as I did with my papertrading for MONTHS, I would go with my gut, jump out and jump right back in. Basically, I did everything I read was wrong to do. Most devastatingly, I acted on emotion. So, with all that being said, it is time to be the professional I have meditated on being for almost 2 years now. I knew time would fly, and I feel the pressure to get this thing right.
I started reviewing Mario Singh’s 17 Proven Currency Trading Strategies. I also visited his website for the 1sttime. I like the guy’s resume for sure. One thing I did right in the past couple of weeks is limit my focus to one pair – USDJPY. What I did not do was study. Tonight, studying trade with Japan officially begins.
Going forward, I’m taking Mario’s advice in regards to having a specific strategy that tells me what to do; when to enter, when to exit. This is a direct attempt to remove the emotion out of my trading. Having experienced it, and felt the pain in my pocket, I have an emotionalized desire to keep my emotions out of my business.
What’s the strategy? Oh, I’m coming up with it right now. So, let’s look at other good things that came out of the past 2 months. I am much more comfortable on the mobile trading app. I can flip from MT4 to Oanda easily, compare spreads with other currency pairs, do some quick analysis, and calculate position size with relative ease. I’m built for day- and swing-trading. 75% of my trades are closed out before the day’s out, and I like that.
I’ll continue trading USDJPY. I will also maintain the 4% limit of risk. That takes care of everything except entering and exiting. “We are how we trade, and we trade how we are.”
Fade the Break – No indicator, straight technical. Identify the support/resistance level, enter when candle’s shadow hits the level, but doesn’t close to break it. Bet that it won’t break it, 1:1/1:2. Use M30/H1 timeframes.
Trade the Break – No indicator, close above resistance or below support (breakout candle). SL is ½ the range of the previous support/resistance levels. TP is still 1:1/1:2. Follow the momentum.
Trading the News – Rule of 20 – If deviation is >20%, trade in that direction. 0.5% for PMI and .2% for interest rates.
That’s enough for now. There’s plenty to start studying to make next week an exercise in self-discipline. I’ll start with reviewing the charts, identifying the current support and resistance levels, then I’ll get to the news. It’s just really beginning, n’est pas?
818
I watched TopTraders yesterday speaking about understanding volatility to prevent hitting the SL so often. Also, allowing your trades to go to the levels stated, moving your Stop Loss to secure profits, and decreasing your position size as you get more in the positive. The one mistake I made on a trade this week was get out too early. I got $12, when I could have gotten $50 if I waited, so my patient is developing.
Going forward this next week, let's see what fundamental announcements are coming this month.
AUD - Monday 2130, RBA Interest Rate Decision
USD - Tues 0700, JOLTS Job Opening
CAD - Tues 0700, Ivey PMI
JPY - Wed 1800, BoJ speech
NZD - Thur 1545, Electronic Card Retail Sales
As I said before, I won't be trading these events unless I'm a little ways out from the announcement because the spread and momentarily volatility. The goals are to take little profits balancing risk this week. More to come. Btw, I'm really enjoying the Oanda platform. It's so important to profit from a strategy, and I'm here to demonstrate how persistence, courage, planning, tenacity, and vision all contribute to success. When I'm losing (like now), I am reminded that I've learn to fail more and fail forward. There's no turning back, only moving forward.
882
Over the past 2 wks, my account has dropped to $822. Yeah, I’m down 180. Still, I’ve learned a lot and I ended this week on a good trade. As I’ve been trading fundamentals, I have typically been entering an hour or so before news announcements, and holding them for around 2 or 3 hours before my stop loss is triggered.
I’ve traded EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and AUDUSD. The 1st two were the most volatile, so I left them alone this week, and focused on the last two. After insane movements, and having SLs and TPs that were too narrow, I learned to spread it out more, and I also have decided to stay away from trading when news is about to drop. To stay from these SL triggers, I’m widening my bands.
So the two changes going into next week, 1) Trading between announcements, going to back to openings and closings, and 2) widening my bands. With that, we’ll see how it goes. I recall now that this was my strategy to begin with when I was successfully papertrading. Somehow, I forgot what worked for me. Build strong habits that will last you in good and bad times. I’m thankful for all the lessons I’ve learned, and I’m grateful for this time. Failures are but iterations toward success. Remember what doesn’t work and stop it.
I’ve started looking at currency indices. It’s interesting to see how and when they’re moving together and apart. Also, noticing how these ultimately create the pairing charts I trade on. Anyway, I expect my trades to probably hold a bit longer going forward. Until next time.
$1005 in Oanda
AUD GDP win of $0.20
On the Oanda App, you get a screen something like this. This screen shot is taken from my desktop version, but the mobile screen is basically identical. In the rush of trying to put in my position around 1700 today, I settled on 200 units. What are units? Here's the formula, but the caveat is that I don't think it's necessary to understand it when setting up your position size.
Units = (Margin available * Margin Ratio)/ (Base/Home Exchange Rate) = (1000*50)/(.6921) = 80,000 units. Now, that's with a leverage of 50:1. Interestingly, I see around 48,000 available units, but this was the formula I found online.
- Personal Consumption including retail sales
- Business Investment including construction and inventory levels
- Government Spending, largest categories being Social Security benefits, defense spending, and Medicare benefits.
- Net Trade
ISM Manufacturing PMI
So what is ISM? It's a survey given out by the Institute for Supply Management to more than 300 manufacturing firms. The Chair of the Board of Directors is Camille Batiste, Certified Profession of Supply Management (CPSM). She's pretty awesome from what I'm read.
The ISM Manufacturing Index gives equal weight to:
- New Orders
- Production
- Employment
- Supplier Deliveries
- Inventories
Le Fin et Le Commence
I have Oanda and IG live accounts, starting with $1000 per account. It is a very fulfilling time to have reached this moment of intention. I find excitement in my purposeful action, and in my completion of goals. This will be my strength going forward. Aim high and persist, and subsequently you will be called successful.
38%, upcoming ACTIVE trades, and 44th book review.
- Energy Trade and Risk Management // Iris Mack
- *Think and Grow Rich
- Unshakeable // Tony Robbins
- The Intelligent Investor //Benjamin Grah
- How to Day Trade for a Living // Andrew Aziz
- *Power System Economics 2nd Edition // Daniel Kirshen
- *Day Trading University // Ken Calhoun (2000)
- The Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing // Jason Kelly (2010)
- Profitable Day and Swing Trading // Harry Boxer (2014)
- *Keene on the Market // Andrew Keene (2013)
- Money: Master the Game // Tony Robbins (2014)
- *Think and Grow Rich: A Black Choice // Dennis Kimbro
- The Playbook: Inside Look... Think Like Pro Trader // Mike Bellafiore (2013)
- Digital Decarbonization // Council of Foreign Relations (2018)
- Secrets of Antigravitic Propulsion // LaViolete Ph.D (2010)
- Automated Options Trading // Izraayiezich (2012)
- Using the Financial Pages // Romesh Vaitlingham (2006)
- Essentials of Forex Trading // James Chen (2009)
- *How to Retire Early // Robin Charlton (2013)
- Naked Forex // Dr. Walter Peters (2012)
- *Insider Buy - Superstocks // Jesse Stine
- Commodities for Dummies // Amine Bouchentour (2011)
- *Seasonality in the Stock Market // Jay Kaeppel (2009)
- What Works on Walstreet // O'honnessey (2011)
- The Investopedia Guide to Wall Street (2009)
- The Innovator's Dilemma (2003)
- 17 Currency Trading Strategies (2013)
- MetaTrader 4 User Manual
- Unlimited Memory // Grandmaster Kevin Horsley
- Visual Guide to Option Trading (2014)
- The Complete Guide to Option Spreads and Combinations (2014)
- Getting Started in Currency Trading (2008)
- Amazing Forex System (2004)
- Visual Guide to Candlestick Charting (2012)
- Forex Trading Techniques (2003)
- Getting Started in Futures (2005)
- Project Management Book of Knowledge 5th Edition (2015)
- Corporate Finance (2014)
- *Real Leadership // Dean Williams (2010)
- *Accounts Demystified (2008)
- Traders: Risks, Decisions... // Willman (2005)
- Mastering Market Timing // Dickson (2012)
- Trading Systems and Methods // Kaufman (2013)
- A 1st Course in Corporate Finance // Welch (2006)
down to 48%
67%
Looking around, there are so many professionals I'm noticing with MBAs in Finance and Business that have been exposed to and worked in and around these markets. The only thing I would desire from their experiences are the relationships; seeing people formulate novel ideas from the same lectures and books I've listened and read through. Beyond the relationships, these individuals are still human. Meaning, they like most students, are looking for a job after college. Many want to be told what to do to make their lives easier. They are looking to sit back and take a break from the rigors of academia and get that cushion job. Even more, I'd like to be around that minority of students that are staking their claims as entrepreneurs. Better still, I want to partner with them.
As for the majority of those graduates, I want those individuals to work with me. I'll carry the vision if they can handle some of the "easy" work that their curricula has prepared them to tackle. I can and will employ such individuals if and when my business requires such. So, yeah, I'm looking more into the inner workings around these investment banks, proprietary firms, asset managers, etc. Here are the trades from the last couple of weeks below.
up 59%.
GDP for GBP (2300 on wednesday) reports are coming out this week. Pay attention to the effects. Nothing else really to report. I was able to successfully make trades with the South African Rand this week (although I lost it), and oh yeah, I've become more aware of my SL:TP ratio. It was up 1:3 instead of 1:2 this week. The routine of limiting my profit margin has been removed going forward. I'm risking the same amount, 4%, and I'm making trades that I am confident will provide larger returns. Until next time. Balance: 159,000.
49%
Completion of book 43, 45% gains to date
• Release of economic statistics (PPI and CPI for inflation, retail sales, balance of trade, employment and initial claims, consumer confidence, housing and refinancing).
• Action by the Federal Reserve or other central banks to change rates or change their bias (the way they express future policy).
• Changes in the money supply that indicate easing or tightening.
• Government reports on commodities production and inventories.
• Unexpected news or price shocks, such as an assassination or terrorist attack
• Trade negotiations, agreements, legislation, and occasionally rulings by the U.S. Supreme Court that affect business.
• Weather and natural disasters, such as the Japanese earthquake, or a hurricane that affects the sugar crop or causes large payouts by insurance companies (or COVID!)
• In-depth studies by the Wall Street Journal.
• Front-page news articles and dominant television coverage of high prices, strikes, etc., and their potential effects on business.
• Market letters, research reports, and comments from accepted authorities, major brokerage houses, and influential organizations.
"[T]he CFTC releases its Commitments of Traders (COT) report each week. It tells the distribution of holdings among large and small speculators and hedgers as a percent of total open interest."
I’m going up to 4% risk from here on out because my time to go live is coming soon, and I need try a few more things, sooner than later. Quick calculation, if I take 10 trades, risking 2% for SL, 4% for TP, let's say I'm successful 50% of the time.
5(.04x) - 5(.02x) = 5(.02)x = .1x. That means I'd gain 10% on my capital (x). So odds are in my favor if I'm correct only half the time! I just had to point that out. Now, what if I increase the risk to SP of 4%, TP of 8%:
5(.08x) - 5(.04x) = 5(.04x) = .2x = 20% gain. The risk makes it important to be more accurate because I can bleed my account sooner. Oh my goodness.
4 more trades, 38% total
-3 trades, down to 26% overall
5 trades - 23.9% gain
-1.2%
- USD - US dollar (US, Singapore, China..) - 0630
- EUR - Euro (24 European countries) - 23/2400
- JPY - Japanese Yin - 1600
- GBP - British Pound (UK) - 2400
- CHF - Swiss franc (Switzerland) - 0630
- CAD - Canadian Dollar - 0630
- AUD - Australian Dollar - 1500
- ZAR - South African Rand - 2300
- LSE - London (GBP)
- SIX - Zurich, Switzerland (CHF)
- FWB - Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Germany (EUR)
- MOEX - Moscow, Russia (RUB)
- JSE - Johannesburg, South Africa (ZAR)
- TADAWUL - Saudi Arabia (SAR)
- DFM - Dubai (QR)
- JPX - Japan Exchange Group (JPY)
- SSE - Shangai Stock Exchange (CNY)
- HKEX - Hong Kong (HKD, CNY, USD)
- SGX - Singapore (SGD, USD)
- NSE - Mumbai - Nation's Stock Exchange of India (INR)
- ASX - Sydney, Australia (AUD)
- NZX - Wellington, New Zealand (NZD) "kiwi" dollar
- BMBF - Sao Paulo - B3 Brazil Real (BRL)
(1) trade, 1-.002 = .998
My running interest rate is (the current)*(this week's return) = 1.04*.998 = 3.79%. If I started with 100,000 it would be 103,790 at this point.
P^1.0379 = P^(r^7)
r = 1.0379^(1/7) = 1.005 = .5% per trade, if they were all made consecutively.
If I make 2% a week, that's 1.02^(1/2) = .99% a trade if made one after the other.
If I make 1% a trade for 4 wks, that's 8 trades, 1.01^8 = 8.2%
2% a week for 4 weeks, 1.02^4 = 8.2%
Let's go to 52 weeks! 1% a trade for 52 weeks: 1.01^104 = 281% if trades are consecutive!
2% a week for 52 weeks: 1.02^52 = 280%.
Therefore, averaging 2% a week should work out just fine :)
- US New Home Sales - Monday 0700
- US Core Durable Goods Orders - Tuesday 0530
- US CB Consumer Confidence Index - Tuesday 0700
- US Pending Home Sales - Wed 0700
- US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change - Wed 0730
- US Fed Interest Rate Decision - Wed 1100
- US FOMC Press Conference - Wed 1130
- UK - Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision - Thur 0400
- UK - BoE Governor Carney Speech - Thur 0430
- USD GDP - Thur 0530
- JPY Retail Sales - Thus 1550
- EUR GDP - Thur 2230
- EUR GDP - European Union GDP Fri 0200
+2 Trades
Unlike the analogy of someone sitting at a stop sign when there are no cars in sight in any direction, it isn't an issue of "doing what's right when no one's looking." It's not an issue of integrity, patriotism, etc. A better analogy is advertising. Well-designed Financial statements can be your biggest marketing tool to investors, and therefore can lead to expansion of your business. More so than the ideals of the company, the mission statement, etc., when the numbers look good, people want to buy in. If I'm selling something, the least knowledgeable person about that product is the worst off. Some people can watch infomercials and spot what products will fail after a week's use, and others fall victim to the new, shiny toys, and watch their investments depreciate to $0. Similarly, you have to be able to break down a company's finances with a few glances at their statements, knowing the tricks of the trade, what should be further analyzed, etc. Simply put, great book.
Week 2: (1.2%) - Negative percentages in parentheses
Week 3: 2.75%
x^[1.025*(1-.012)*1.0275]= x^[1.025*.988*1.0275]= x^1.04
Therefore, so far I've made 4% profit on any starting investment. For $10k, that's $400 bucks profit. Still, I'm choosing my position sizes based on risking 2%/trade or less for my SL. The TP is set first, based on what kind of movement I'm deciding on. For example, "GPBUSD going up 20 pips." That's my TP. SP would be 20/(2 to 2.7) = 7.4 to 10 pips. Position size is then (.02)(100,000)/(74 to 100) = 20 to 27 lots. Wow, I've never had a position that large... As you can see in the snapshot, 14.50 is my highest so far. That's with closing before the TP is reached. Babies crawl until they're tired of being on their knees!
(4) Trades
In the negative this past week. 4 trades were done on GBPUSD and USDCHF. They were conducted around 4am PST. Trading around 2300 PST has proven more profitable because of the time difference. The negative trades were also due to the volatility at those hours before the close on Friday. Trading earlier in the week will prove my strategy in the next couple of days.
$100,000 paper money
- I can learn anything I want.
- Anything learned will mostly be lost if months go by without accessing the information.
- I can make time for anything I put my mind to
- It's easy for me to acquire knowledge, the change would be to develop skills in applying it.
2020 Plan of Action
Alright, With the conclusion of 39 or 44 books, there is a push to wrap this up. The remaining books will be,
- (Long Term) Accounts Demystified (2008)
- (Wall Street) Risks, Decisions, and Management in Financial Markets (2005)
- A First Course in Corporate Finance (2006)
- (Swing) Trading Systems and Methods (2013)
- (Trading Bull) Mastering Market Timing (2012)
- Writing book on Linear Algebra
- Running a half marathon
- Taking another grad level class
- Memorizing Fundamentals of International Banks and Exchanges
- Increased smiles and happiness in the home
- Maintaining healthy diet
- Supporting wife's business
- Building complementary curricula for daughter
- Maintaining long distance relationships with family members
Corporate Finance
Directors of Finance, Chief Financial Officers, money managers, Professor of the International Financial System, Treasurers, VPs, Directors of Corporate Development and Strategic Planning, CEOs, and the host of institutions they represent fill the pages with insight into how financial discussions develop in those circles. I was surprised at the simplicity of the questions. "Describe how you manage Stanford's $16.5 billion endowment."
Now, the answers to these questions speak to the relevance of the topics discussed in the chapters. For me, the sea of terms and ideas exist as a detailed picture in my mind. The picture has life, vegetation, the sea aforementioned, the sun and sky are visible, and there I sit admiring it all. The realization, however, is that this picture is a virtual one, a human construction, indeed the antithesis of nature. The picture isn't refreshing. To take a deep breath, hear the birds around me, and take in the wonder of nature. That is the desire in my studies, to learn and appreciate more.
Corporate Finance allows me to see the importance of having partners with a routing in the international financial system. Similar to having watched many foreign language films, I can recognize the language now. It's a little easier to hear one who speaks the language of finance fluently. The question is who among them will be useful to me and ultimately the world in the future?
- Maintenance
- Crisis
- Development
- Creative
- Activist
- Transition
472
I've officially lost over 50% of my investment to date. At this point, I'm at a loss, pun intended I suppose. Now, I'm at the...
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In the book, The Complete Guide to Option Spreads and Combinations , there's more of a discussion on delta - how much the option price ...
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Alright, no biggie. MT5 has been scraped for the foreseeable future. My Parallel's software, from 2016, started to flake, giving me gr...



















